[This is the final part of my six-part series on the Euro 2020. The first five articles talked about location, how the tournament works, the different groups, and the pundits favored teams to win. In this article I will discuss who I think are the favored teams, and how I think the tournament will play out.]
In my previous article, I broke down why England and France were named joint favorites, with 5/1 odds of winning. Now, I agree that France and England are strong teams, but I disagree that they are the favorites to win Euro 2020, and I think that Portugal and Croatia should be the top favored teams and I’ll tell you why.
I think that the individual talents of France will not match up to the unestablished talents of Portugal, who are meshing at just the right time. I think that France played the better game in the 2018 World Cup final against Croatia, but they did so at a time when Croatia had gone through extra time in three out of four of their knockout stage games and were clearly tired out. I also think that Portugal who already beat France in the Euro 2016 Final, is even better now with half a starting lineup worth of new talent, and with Ronaldo, who missed the final, back and healthy. This, in my estimation, makes them a bigger threat than France.
I think that in England’s case, I do not agree that success at the youth competitions translates into success at the senior-level Euro. In fact, I believe the vast difference will weigh on the younger members of the squad who will be playing in their first international tournament. It will take the team time for the mix of senior and younger players to gel, meanwhile most of their competition is ready to hit the ground running. It is important to remember that in the 2018 World Cup, England arguably only had Croatia as their main competition and lost to them. It is now ironic that their main Group stage competition will also be Croatia.
I think that the favorites to win Euro 2020 are Portugal and Croatia, and here is why.
It has been five years since Portugal won Euro 2016, and since then they have become a hugely improved team. When Portugal beat France 1-0 in 2016, they played not only a more defensive game, but did so without their star player and FIFA’s Best Player of the Year recipient, Ronaldo, from the 25th minute on due to injury. The Portuguese had to go into overtime to win, and thus played without their top player, captain, and talisman for 95 minutes—and still won.
This time, Portugal go into the Euro with five new players who are all making a difference in their respective club teams’ offenses. Those players are: João Cancelo (Man City), Bruno Fernandes (Man United), Bernardo Silva (Man City), João Félix (Atletico Madrid), and Diogo Jota (Liverpool). I think that by changing their style of play from play defensive-and-‘get Ronaldo the ball,’ to a more balanced, cohesive and offensive style, the renown “defensive Portugal” will instead become a surprise offensive threat that will take most teams by surprise.
When it comes to Croatia, they have a lot to fight for. First, they lost to France in the 2018 World Cup and are looking to avenge that. Second, this might be the last major international tournament for two of the team’s most influential players Ivan Perišić and Luka Modrić, so they are both looking for a final shot at glory for Croatia. Third, the other two key players have both been on an upward trend heading into the tournament. Ante Rebić has been improving and is a driving force for Milan in Serie A where they ended the season in 2nd place. Meanwhile, Mateo Kovačić has been a more regular presence at Chelsea only being left out of the squad twice this season. As a matter of fact, with the exception of matches 32-36 where he was out due to injury, Mateo played regularly and was back from injury in time to play in their last match against Leicester, which qualified them for next year’s Champions League.
Finally, I also think that people still underestimate the influence Modrić can have on a match when he is in fact the perfect midfielder, and the main drive of the Croatian team. I think that they will make it clean out of their group and then be a tough opponent for whoever they match up with in the Round of 16. Thereafter, I think the sky is the limit for Croatia.
Here is how I think the Tournament will go. These are my top two picks from each group plus the top 4 third-place teams.
Group A: Italy and Turkey *with Switzerland being 3rd
Group B: Belgium and Denmark *with Russia being 3rd
Group C: Netherlands and Austria
Group D: England and Croatia
Group E: Spain and Sweden *with Poland being 3rd
Group F: Germany and Portugal * with France being 3rd
This means the Round of 16 will be as follows: 1) Belgium vs. Poland, 2) Italy vs. Austria, 3) Germany vs. Switzerland, 4) Croatia vs. Sweden, 5) Spain vs. Russia, 6) England vs. Portugal, 7) Netherlands vs. France, and 8) Turkey vs. Denmark.
I think the winners will be: Belgium, Italy, Germany, Croatia, Spain, Portugal, France, and Turkey. This means the Quarterfinals will be as follows: 1) Belgium vs. Italy, 2) Germany vs. Croatia, 3) Spain vs. Portugal, and 4) France vs. Turkey.
I think the winners of the Quarterfinals will be: Italy, Germany, Portugal, and France. This means that the Semi-finals will be as follows: 1) Italy vs. Germany, and 2) Portugal vs. France.
I think the winners of the Semi-finals will be Germany and Portugal.
This means that the Final will be Germany vs. Portugal and I think that Portugal will be Champions once again. Portugal winning would be controversial because they have only beaten Germany (Not counting West Germany) once in their many years of confrontations, that was 21 years ago on June 20th, 2000.
Stay tuned for my next article. From here on out I will not be covering every single game from the group stage and round of 16, instead I will be selecting games to cover. From the quarterfinals moving forward, I will cover every game.
Euro trophy, Wikipedia, Creative Commons
